Strategic Oil Reserve

No, not that one. Which not filling, by the way, seems a little disingenuous considering that during the last gas price "crisis" just a year or two ago, President Bush said that tapping the strategic petroleum reserve would do no good in lowering prices. Unless oil goes in much faster than it comes out, I don't see what has changed. But I digress...

My real point is about ANWR and any oil that may be had off our continental shelf. Many (generally on the right) have called for drilling in one or more areas to help ease our reliance on foreign oil. This would supposedly bring prices down and national security up, all with a minimal sacrifice in caribou. Now, I'm all for low prices and high security, but I wonder if the caribou lovers haven't done us all a favor by thwarting any attempt at harvesting these oil reserves. I'll try to explain.

Currently, gas is cheap in the US. Relative to previous years, that statement is absurd, but relative to the rest of the world and in the grand scheme of things, it's painfully obvious. One need only take in the proliferation SUV's to see that the screw of gas prices isn't too tight on most of us yet. Moreover, until recently we had much of the oil market to ourselves. If we wanted oil, there it was getting dusty on the shelf just waiting to be bought. There were few other major oil buyers (Japan, sure, but let me get to my point...), so OPEC could cut production to get at us (in turn cutting their sales), but that was about it. Now, we're faced with two giants in the marketplace, India and China. All of a sudden it's like the day after Thanksgiving at Best Buy. If the oil supply had risen and become more secure, maybe our old habits could have continued in the face of these behemoths, but it hasn't and they can't. Thus we come to our current rising prices and tenuous national security.

So how does caribou hugging help us here? I submit that the current time, and certainly the preceding time, are not as bad oil wise as what is to come. In fact, I expect they are a brisk walk on a cold day compared with the mountaineering that is to come later. India and China's economies are only going to up-shift as time goes by, and though India seems pleasantly friendly and may work with us on energy policy, China is a polite acquaintance at best (though one we do an amazing amount of business with, but again I digress). Had we tapped into our local oil deposits previously, or if we do so now, they'll be used up quite fast. Our current oil use is astounding, and I believe these deposits are not much in the face of the American consumer. Once they're gone, what then will we have to fall back on? Running the last major oil deposits we have dry to keep gas at $2.50 a gallon so we can have our 12 mpg SUV and flat screen TV is not intelligent. In fact, buying all the cheap oil we can from whoever is selling it now (while still minimizing our use, by the way) almost seems brilliant, if it weren't inadvertent.

Why so brilliant? Because we invested on the ground floor, and now we have the ability to get out: advance our technology and cut our oil consumption. India and China are looking at serious problems if their oil consumption ramps up as expected because they'll be denied the cheap energy we've feasted on for so long. We won't ever be able to fully cut our oil use (at least not soon enough for my crystal ball to see), but we will reduce it. And, if the oil supply finally ends up in the hands of nuclear mullahs and South American communists bent on our destruction, that oil reserve under the caribou's feet is going to look pretty good.

The one problem with my plan for world domination? Timing. It's not like the two tanks in your SUV; we can't just switch from one oil source to another with a quick turn of a knob. Harvesting this oil takes years of planning and preparation, and not knowing the quality and quantity of the oil there makes planning for its use even harder. Still, I think we may be glad at our "fortune" if we find ourselves really in need. I'm sure if the time comes, many politicians will take credit for this ingenious move, and if any have already that's news to me and I'd love to know about it. But, though I love to be right, I hope an energy crisis never descends that causes us to see this "strategic oil reserve" the way I've been advocating. Here's to hoping...

"...because it is Iran."

My thoughts exactly. Not that military intervention is the right path right now, but equating the US, France, Israel and, yes, even India having Nuclear weapons with Iran possessing them is quite nearly suicide.

(via Sullivan)

Iran, the Bomb and the End of the World

I can't believe what I read in this article, though it seems to come from a reputable source. Does Iran (their government, in any event) really want to end the world? Are they really preparing for the downfall of the US, stopping at nothing until the "West" is annihilated? If so, that turns every idea of engagement with this regime on its head. Now, I do suppose if we made life in Iran good enough, there wouldn't be anyone left to support a radical government, but that's just a nice way of implementing regime change.

I must say though, as a point of confession, that it gave me a twinge of pride when President Bush was described as an "aberration" to be waited out so Iran can continue on it's path down Armageddon Lane. Our President may hire clods for FEMA posts, but at least he has done something right to garner that kind of response. I hope the next president continues in this tradition (and guts FEMA). Right now, my money is on McCain to fill this vacancy, but there's still a lot of time before that die is cast.

Ha Ha!

Monkeys! Ha Ha!

(Merry April Fool's Day ya'll.)

Dust to Dust

Finally, a study that looks at the overall environmental impact of automobiles has surfaced. (Thanks to Autoblog for dredging it up.) This article seems to confirm my hunch that hybrid environmental savings aren't all their touted to be. However, as some commenters at autoblog have noticed, these environmental costs will change as demand for hybrids increases. I agree it is likely that soon the environmental costs of hybrids will be essentially equal to their less technologically savy brethren. But only equal? That doesn't sound like the hybrids the world has come to know and love. I thought these things were supposed to be saving the earth.