The numbers

I ran some simple numbers as a way to illustrate my point below, that hybrids probably aren't as useful as they're made out to be. Here, I want to illustrate the economic differences between hybrid and non-hybrid cars. I chose the Honda Civic and Honda Civic Hybrid to compare since they are about as close to each other, minus the drivetrain, as can be. So, here we go.

First, the hybrid. Base price $21,850. This includes all kinds of good stuff like side air bags, abs, cc, ac with climate control, a CD player and a continuously variable transmission. All in all, this car is pretty well equipped. The EPA mileage estimate is 49/51 city/highway.

The non-hybrid. Here things get a little tricky. The hybrid is sold as one trim level only (with a nav option), so we have to pick the corresponding non-hybrid trim level. However, if you are interested in saving money, you may not care for all the fancy tidbits and would go with a more lowly Civic. So, here I have compared the uplevel EX, which corresponds with the Hybrid well in the features department (and even has some things not on the Hybrid), and the less well equipped LX. Both have equivalent mechanical specs (and both are evaluated with an automatic transmission).

EX. Base price 19,060. This car seems to have every feature mentioned for the hybrid, except that the automatic is a traditional five speed. The EPA mileage estimate is 30/40 city/highway.

LX. Base Price 17,310. I couldn't tell from Honda's website all the differences between this and the EX, but I'm certain it's missing various bits like the nice CD player, a moonroof, outside temperature display etc. Perhaps all these are worth 1700 dollars, but I wouldn't pay for them. The mileage is the same as the EX.

So, if we take the price difference between the two standard models and the hybrid, we get $2,790 for the EX and $4,540 for the LX. If we keep the car for 150,000 miles (we're saving the environment here, we keep our cars for a long time) and take an average of city and highway mileage as our average mileage over the life of the car, we see the hybrid saves 1285.71 gallons of gas over the others. To make up the purchase price differential of the hybrid, gas would need to be only $2.17 for the EX and bit more at $3.53 for the LX. Clearly, the hybrid can make up it's purchase price over the EX, and will likely do so for the LX as oil becomes increasingly scarce.

However, there are other factors. I've heard through the grapevine that a $700 tax credit is available for hybrids, adding to their appeal. This does not negate, by a long shot, the likelihood of having to replace the hybrid battery, something that has been rumored to cost about $6,000 - $10,000. And, there may be other maintenance costs associated with the complex drivetrain. Let's just look at these two additional factors however.

Adding in a $6,000 battery replacement and a $700 tax credit, we find a price differential of $8,090 for the EX and $9,840 for the LX. Remember, this is just differences in the cars. Each car has similar mechanicals other than the hybrid parts of the drivetrain, so I assume these other parts will fail similarly. These numbers require gas prices of $6.29 for the EX and $7.65 for the LX. Relative to the US now, these are stratospheric. Relative to the rest of the world, e.g. Germany, this isn't out of reach.

So I stand by my conclusions. Hybrids are very cool, and they may help us be independent of certain oil producing states. But economically they aren't a slam dunk. As for assessing their environmental impact, that's more work than I can spare right now; a full life cycle analysis including production wastes for materials, emissions during use and final disposal is no small task. Maybe if I go for a second Ph.D I'll see if anyone wants to fund that work.